Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
